India on Friday became the third country in the world to record more than one million cases of the new coronavirus
India on Friday became the third country in the world
to record more than one million cases of the new coronavirus, behind only the
United States and Brazil, as infections spread further into the countryside and
smaller towns.
Given India's population of around 1.3 billion,
experts say, one million is relatively low — but the number will rise
significantly in the coming months as testing increases, further straining a
healthcare system already pushed to the brink.
The pandemic has surged in the country in recent weeks
as it spread beyond the biggest cities, pushing India past Russia as the third
most infected country last week.
Authorities imposed fresh lockdowns and designated new
containment zones in several states this week, including the largely rural
Bihar state in the east and the southern tech hub Bengaluru, where cases have
spiked.
But officials have struggled to enforce the lockdowns
and keep people indoors.
India recorded 34,956 new infections on Friday, taking
the total to 1,003,832, with 25,602 deaths from Covid-19, federal health
ministry data showed. That compares to 3.6 million cases in the United States
and two million in Brazil — countries with less than a third of India's
population.
Epidemiologists say India is still likely months from
hitting its peak.
“In the coming months, we are bound to see more and
more cases, and that is the natural progression of any pandemic,” said Giridhar
Babu, epidemiologist at the non-profit Public Health Foundation of India.
“As we move forward, the goal has to be lower
mortality,” he said. “A critical challenge states will face is how to
rationally allocate hospital beds.”
The last four months of the pandemic sweeping India
have exposed severe gaps in the country's healthcare system, which is one of
the most poorly funded and has for years lacked enough doctors or hospital
beds.
The Indian government has defended a strict lockdown it
imposed in March to contain the virus spread, saying it helped keep death rates
low and allowed time to beef up the healthcare infrastructure. But public
health experts say shortages remain and could hit hard in the coming months.
“As a public health measure, I don't think the
lockdown had much impact. It just delayed the virus spread,” said Dr Kapil
Yadav, assistant professor of community medicine at New Delhi's premier All
India Institute of Medical Sciences.
"The million cases so far recorded likely left
out many asymptomatic ones," he said. “It's a gross underestimate.”
Rahul Gandhi, leader of the opposition Congress party,
urged Prime Minister Narendra Modi to take concrete steps to contain the
pandemic, tweeting that the number of infections will double to two million by
August 10 at this pace.
Millions of migrant workers, left stranded in the
cities by the lockdown in March, took long journeys home on foot, some dying on
the way while others left without work or wages.
Several states including Bihar, to which many of the
migrants returned, have witnessed a surge in cases in recent weeks as the
lockdown has been eased to salvage a sagging economy.
Babu predicts India will not see a sharp peak and
decline.
“The surges are shifting from one place to another, so
we cannot say there will be one peak for the whole country. In India, its going
to be a sustained plateau for some time and then it will go down.”
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